Scenarios for the future

AITSL has worked with key stakeholders to develop 4 scenarios, exploring how Australia’s F–12 education environment could evolve towards 2040, as part of our Future Teacher Future Leader initiative.

On this page you can download the user guide, the scenarios, and a methodology document that explains how they were developed.

User guide

Navigating uncertainty: using futures scenarios to inform education strategy and decision making

The user guide provides practical guidance for using the scenarios. It includes suggested activities and prompts to help organisations explore potential implications, challenge assumptions and strengthen decision making.

Download the Future Teacher Future Leader user guide (PDF)

Download the Future Teacher Future Leader user guide & scenarios (ZIP)

Scenarios

Each scenario explores how different social, technological, economic, environmental and political changes could reshape the purpose of education, the role of teachers, the experience of learners and the responsibilities of governments, systems and communities.

Download Future Teacher Future Leader scenarios (PDF)

Use the scenarios in strategic decision-making

The resources have been developed primarily for education systems, sectors, policymakers and organisations with responsibility for long-term strategy, policy, workforce planning and reform.

The scenarios can be used to explore a range of plausible futures, challenge assumptions about what may remain the same and consider how decisions made today might perform under different future conditions.

How to read a futures scenario

There is no single correct way to read a futures scenario. It can be tempting to judge each scenario by asking whether it is likely to happen or whether it reflects our future preference. Futures thinking encourages a different approach. Rather than trying to predict the future, consider what each scenario reveals about today's assumptions, choices and strategic decisions.

Each scenario should be read both as a complete future and as a collection of individual ideas. Some elements may feel more plausible, more challenging or more relevant than others, and aspects of different scenarios may emerge over time. The value lies not in deciding which scenario is "correct", but in exploring the different questions, opportunities and assumptions that each one raises.

How the scenarios were developed

AITSL developed the scenarios using established foresight and scenario-planning methods, drawing on research, emerging trends and insights from across the education sector and beyond.

We partnered with Learning Creates Australia to ensure the perspectives and experiences of young people were embedded throughout the work.

AITSL also acknowledges the Australian Council for Educational Leaders (ACEL) for its support in progressing and sharing this work with education leaders across Australia.

Further information about the approach and the development of the scenarios is available in the methodology document.

Methodology

Developing Australian education scenarios: exploring alternative futures

The methodology document explains how the scenarios were developed, including the foresight approach, evidence and stakeholder engagement process.

Download the Future Teacher Future Leader methodology (PDF)